This report provides a road map for navigating through the current COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. It outlines specific directions for adapt- ing our public-health strategy as we limit the epidemic spread of COVID-19 and are able to transition to new tools and approaches to prevent further spread of the disease. We outline the steps that can be taken as epidemic transmission is brought under control in different regions. These steps can transition to tools and approaches that target those with infection rather than mitigation tactics that target entire populations in regions where transmission is widespread and not controlled. We suggest measurable milestones for identifying when we can make these transitions and start reopening America for businesses and families.
Scott Gottlieb, MD
Caitlin Rivers, PhD, MPH
Mark B. McClellan, MD, PhD
Lauren Silvis, JD
Crystal Watson, DrPh, MPH
MARCH 28, 2020
In each phase, we outline the steps that the federal government, working with the states and public-health and health care partners, should take to inform the response. This will take time, but planning for each phase should begin now so the infrastructure is in place when it is time to transition.
The specific milestones and markers included in the report for transitioning our responses are judgments based on our current understanding, with the goal of facilitating an effective path forward. The epidemic is evolving rapidly, and our understanding of best responses will evolve as well. The broad set of tasks described here requires and will receive high-level, ongoing attention, and it should be updated and refined as additional evidence, context, and insights about the epidemic become available.
To gradually move away from a reliance on physi- cal distancing as our primary tool for controlling future spread, we need:
1) Better data to identify areas of spread and the rate of exposure and immunity in the population;
2)Improvements in state and local health care system capabilities, public-health infrastructure for early outbreak identification, case contain- ment, and adequate medical supplies; and
3) Therapeutic, prophylactic, and preventive treat- ments and better-informed medical interven- tions that give us the tools to protect the most vulnerable people and help rescue those who may become very sick.
Our stepwise approach depends on our ability to aggregate and analyze data in real time. To strengthen our public-health surveillance system to account for the unprecedented spread of COVID-19, we need to harness the power of technology and drive additional resources to our state and local public-health depart- ments, which are on the front lines of case identifica- tion and contact tracing. Finally, we must expand our investments in pharmaceutical research and develop- ment into COVID-19 and promote the rapid deploy- ment of effective diagnostics, therapies, and eventually a vaccine.
Slow the Spread in Phase I.
This is the current phase of response. The COVID-19 epidemic in the United States is growing, with community transmis- sion occurring in every state. To slow the spread in this period,1 schools are closed across the country, workers are being asked to do their jobs from home when possible, community gathering spaces such as malls and gyms are closed, and restaurants are being asked to limit their services. These measures will need to be in place in each state until transmission has measurably slowed down and health infrastruc- ture can be scaled up to safely manage the outbreak and care for the sick.
State-by-State Reopening in Phase II.
Individual states can move to Phase II when they are able to safely diagnose, treat, and isolate COVID-19 cases and their contacts. During this phase, schools and businesses can reopen, and much of normal life can begin to resume in a phased approach. However, some physical distancing measures and limitations on gatherings will still need to be in place to prevent transmission from accelerating again. For older adults (those over age 60), those with underlying health conditions, and other populations at heightened risk from COVID-19, continuing to limit time in the community will be important.
Public hygiene will be sharply improved, and deep cleanings on shared spaces should become more rou- tine. Shared surfaces will be more frequently sanitized, among other measures. In addition to case-based interventions that more actively identify and isolate people with the disease and their contacts, the pub- lic will initially be asked to limit gatherings, and peo- ple will initially be asked to wear fabric nonmedical face masks while in the community to reduce their risk of asymptomatic spread. Those who are sick will be asked to stay home and seek testing for COVID-19. Testing should become more widespread and rou- tine as point-of-care diagnostics are fully deployed in doctors’ offices.
While we focus on state-by-state reopening of activ- ities in a responsible manner and based on surveillance data, we note that states may move forward at a county or regional level if these conditions vary within the state and that coordination on reopening among states that share metropolitan regions will be necessary.
Establish Immune Protection and Lift Physical Distancing During Phase III.
Physical distancing restrictions and other Phase II measures can be lifted when safe and effective tools for mitigating the risk of COVID-19 are available, including broad surveillance, therapeutics that can rescue patients with significant disease or prevent serious illness in those most at risk, or a safe and effective vaccine.
Rebuild Our Readiness for the Next Pandemic in Phase IV.
After we successfully defeat COVID-19, we must ensure that America is never again unpre- pared to face a new infectious disease threat. This will require investment into research and development initiatives, expansion of public-health and health care infrastructure and workforce, and clear governance structures to execute strong preparedness plans. Properly implemented, the steps described here also provide the foundation for containing the damage that future pathogens may cause.
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